This
autumn is looking like national divorce season in Europe, beginning
with Scotland's Sept. 18 referendum on breaking up with the United
Kingdom.
"There is no question that in Spain and elsewhere, they
are looking very closely at this vote," says Richard Whitman, an expert
on European politics at the University of Kent in England. "If, for
example, an independent Scotland is allowed entry into the European
Union in a fairly uncomplicated manner, then that will create an
important precedent for Catalonia."
Catalonia, the semi-autonomous
Spanish region whose capital is Barcelona, is likely to push ahead with
a Nov. 9 vote to separate from Spain, despite attempts by Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy to block it.
Madrid has already rejected a
similar request for an independence referendum by Spain's Basque region.
The Basques have lobbied for an independence referendum for more than a
decade. Eta, a radical Basque separatist group, has not disarmed after
years of hostilities.
"It's an interesting moment for Europe," Whitman says. "Scotland is creating what you might call a 'possibility' for others."
STORY: Scotland's remote outpost splits on independence vote
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Scotland's
and Catalonia's secession movements are not entirely analogous.
Catalonia's case for political self-determination rests partly on the
idea of cultural and linguistic suppression. Scotland's top complaint is
economic and social discrimination by Parliament in London, which is
seen as too far away and otherwise engaged to serve Scottish interests.
Albert
Royo-Mariné, secretary general of the Public Diplomacy Council of
Catalonia, a government-supported group that seeks to raise awareness
about Catalonia, says that regardless of its outcome, the Scottish
referendum is a "victory for democracy and common sense, and thus, it is
a great example to Catalans."
Elsewhere across Europe, there are other fledgling breakaway states.
In
Flanders, a Dutch-speaking part of northern Belgium, pro-independence
Flemish activists have been agitating, albeit at a relatively subdued
level, for more autonomy from Wallonia, the southern French-speaking
part.
Online polling in Venice earlier this year found widespread
support for Veneto, a northern region of Italy, to ditch Rome and go it
alone, although the poll's accuracy has been questioned.
And the
world has watched this year as Russian-speaking militants in eastern
Ukraine have been fighting for greater autonomy from the central
government in Kiev, if not outright independence.
Whitman says
relatively small states are becoming the norm in Europe, and big
nations, such as Germany and France, the exception. He notes that the
three Baltic republics, Luxembourg, Malta, Cyprus and the Czech and
Slovak republics are all recent examples of successful new nations that
have thrived in spite of their small sizes.
"These places seem to
exercise their sovereignty even within a global context," Whitman says,
"and that's a powerful message for secession movements looking to
emulate their success."
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